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Cadent, working with Northern Gas Networks, SGN and Wales & West Utilities, is seeking information from the market to inform the potential development of a future Below 2 Bar Risk Model. The capability would support public-safety risk assessment, network planning and regulatory decision-making associated with GD4 / RIIO-4 and beyond. The current Mains Replacement Prioritisation System has supported the Iron Mains Risk Reduction Programme. The participating Gas Distribution Networks are now considering how a shared, defensible and future-proof approach could preserve safety performance while improving transparency, auditability and consistency across networks. 1.1 Current context: • The future model is intended to provide transparent intelligence that supports intervention and investment prioritisation, without itself making operational decisions or generating work packages. • Its core purpose is public-safety risk assessment for relevant distribution assets operating up to 2 bar. Worker risk, monetisation and economic factors are outside the core risk calculation. • The model must be capable of supporting regulator scrutiny and consistent interpretation across the participating Gas
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